Forest Factory Valuation Model

ABSTRACT

Apparatuses, computer media, and methods for determining a value of a forest factory. A stump land value component and a biomass component of a forest factory are determined. A value of the forest factory is obtained by combining the components. The stump land value component may be normalized by a crop rotation time period. A carbon value component of a forest factory may be determined and the value of the forest factory adjusted. A land parcel may be partitioned into land partitions, in which forest parameters are associated with each land partition. A stump land value component, a biomass fuel value component, and a carbon credit value component may be determined from the land partitions. The carbon credit value component may be determined a percentage of coniferous trees, deciduous trees, and corresponding constant values of oxygen generation.

This application is a continuation of pending U.S. application Ser. No.11/533,158 filed on Sep. 19, 2006 which claims priority to provisionalU.S. Application No. 60/721,183, filed Sep. 27, 2005, the entiredisclosure of which is hereby incorporated by reference.

FIELD OF THE INVENTION

This invention relates generally to modeling a forest factory. Moreparticularly, the invention provides apparatuses, computer media, andmethods for determining a value of a forest factory.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION

In recent years, pulp, paper, and lumber producers have been taking aclose look at the forests they own in mature markets in areas such asthe United States and Western Europe. In many cases, the pulp, paper,and lumber producers are concluding that the wisest course is to selloff those assets. However, evolving economic realities are bringing newvariables into the equation. As a result, companies that simply followthe current conventional wisdom of shedding forest real estate may belosing significant and growing sources of value and limiting theirability to build high-performance businesses over the long term.

The trend toward divesting forest assets is driven by a number of veryreal issues facing owners of timberland in Europe and North America.These include the rising costs of key drivers such as crop protectionand mechanical harvesting, the landed price volatility of harvestedtimber, and environmental concerns over harvesting—all of which raisefundamental questions about the future value of forests in maturemarkets.

By selling off those assets, in accordance with the prior art, companiescan focus on reducing the cost of fiber by sourcing from less expensiveregions. Such divestment can also free up cash from what is seen as aquestionable long-term investment, and make cash available fordistribution to investors or for other business investments. Theproceeds from such divestments can be considerable. From 2000 to 2005,for example, Georgia-Pacific and International Paper each brought insome US$4 billion from the sale of timberland as shown in FIG. 1.

The above divestment strategy is based on the traditional value streamsassociated with owning the forest, such as lumber, pulp and chemicalby-products. However, the corresponding list may be incomplete since thelist represents only one aspect of the forest's broader value.Consequently, the above divestment strategy may ignore additionalstreams of revenue.

There exists a need in the art for systems and methods that supportadditional streams of revenue from a forest in order to increase theprofitability of the owner.

BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

The present invention provides apparatuses, computer media, and methodsfor determining a value of a forest factory.

With one aspect of the invention, a stump land value component and abiomass component of a forest factory is determined. A value of theforest factory is obtained by combining the components. The stump landvalue component may be normalized by a crop rotation time period.

With another aspect of the invention, a carbon value component of aforest factory is determined and a value of the forest factory isadjusted.

With another aspect of the invention, a land parcel is partitioned intoland partitions, in which forest parameters are associated with eachland partition. A stump land value component, a biomass fuel valuecomponent, and a carbon credit value component may be determined fromthe land partitions.

With another aspect of the invention, a carbon credit value isdetermined a percentage of coniferous trees, deciduous trees, andcorresponding constant values of oxygen generation.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

The present invention is illustrated by way of example and not limitedin the accompanying figures in which like reference numerals indicatesimilar elements and in which:

FIG. 1 shows representative timberland sales in accordance with priorart.

FIG. 2 shows a computer system that supports an embodiment of theinvention.

FIG. 3 shows sources of economic value from a forest factory inaccordance with an embodiment of the invention.

FIG. 4 shows average monthly oil prices (1998-2005) exemplifying oilprices that embodiments of the invention can adjust to.

FIG. 5 shows biomass fuel and total energy consumption (2002)exemplifying biomass fuel prices that embodiments of the invention canadjust to.

FIG. 6 shows a forest value stack in accordance with an embodiment ofthe invention.

FIG. 7 shows an apparatus that determines an annual total value of aforest factory (TVFF) in accordance with an embodiment of the invention.

FIG. 8 shows a layout of a land parcel into a plurality of landpartitions in accordance with an embodiment of the invention.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

FIG. 2 shows computer system 100 that supports an embodiment of theinvention.

Elements of the present invention may be implemented with computersystems, such as the system 100 shown in FIG. 2. (System 100 may supportapparatus 700 as will be discussed.) Computer 100 includes a centralprocessor 110, a system memory 112 and a system bus 114 that couplesvarious system components including the system memory 112 to the centralprocessor unit 110. System bus 114 may be any of several types of busstructures including a memory bus or memory controller, a peripheralbus, and a local bus using any of a variety of bus architectures. Thestructure of system memory 112 is well known to those skilled in the artand may include a basic input/output system (BIOS) stored in a read onlymemory (ROM) and one or more program modules such as operating systems,application programs and program data stored in random access memory(RAM).

Computer 100 may also include a variety of interface units and drivesfor reading and writing data. In particular, computer 100 includes ahard disk interface 116 and a removable memory interface 120respectively coupling a hard disk drive 118 and a removable memory drive122 to system bus 114. Examples of removable memory drives includemagnetic disk drives and optical disk drives. The drives and theirassociated computer-readable media, such as a floppy disk 124 providenonvolatile storage of computer readable instructions, data structures,program modules and other data for computer 100. A single hard diskdrive 118 and a single removable memory drive 122 are shown forillustration purposes only and with the understanding that computer 100may include several of such drives. Furthermore, computer 100 mayinclude drives for interfacing with other types of computer readablemedia.

A user can interact with computer 100 with a variety of input devices.FIG. 2 shows a serial port interface 126 coupling a keyboard 128 and apointing device 130 to system bus 114. Pointing device 128 may beimplemented with a mouse, track ball, pen device, or similar device. Ofcourse one or more other input devices (not shown) such as a joystick,game pad, satellite dish, scanner, touch sensitive screen or the likemay be connected to computer 100.

Computer 100 may include additional interfaces for connecting devices tosystem bus 114. FIG. 2 shows a universal serial bus (USB) interface 132coupling a video or digital camera 134 to system bus 114. An IEEE 1394interface 136 may be used to couple additional devices to computer 100.Furthermore, interface 136 may configured to operate with particularmanufacture interfaces such as FireWire developed by Apple Computer andi.Link developed by Sony. Input devices may also be coupled to systembus 114 through a parallel port, a game port, a PCI board or any otherinterface used to couple and input device to a computer.

Computer 100 also includes a video adapter 140 coupling a display device142 to system bus 114. Display device 142 may include a cathode ray tube(CRT), liquid crystal display (LCD), field emission display (FED),plasma display or any other device that produces an image that isviewable by the user. Additional output devices, such as a printingdevice (not shown), may be connected to computer 100.

Sound can be recorded and reproduced with a microphone 144 and a speaker166. A sound card 148 may be used to couple microphone 144 and speaker146 to system bus 114. One skilled in the art will appreciate that thedevice connections shown in FIG. 2 are for illustration purposes onlyand that several of the peripheral devices could be coupled to systembus 114 via alternative interfaces. For example, video camera 134 couldbe connected to IEEE 1394 interface 136 and pointing device 130 could beconnected to USB interface 132.

Computer 100 can operate in a networked environment using logicalconnections to one or more remote computers or other devices, such as aserver, a router, a network personal computer, a peer device or othercommon network node, a wireless telephone or wireless personal digitalassistant. Computer 100 includes a network interface 150 that couplessystem bus 114 to a local area network (LAN) 152. Networkingenvironments are commonplace in offices, enterprise-wide computernetworks and home computer systems.

A wide area network (WAN) 154, such as the Internet, can also beaccessed by computer 100. FIG. 2 shows a modem unit 156 connected toserial port interface 126 and to WAN 154. Modem unit 156 may be locatedwithin or external to computer 100 and may be any type of conventionalmodem such as a cable modem or a satellite modem. LAN 152 may also beused to connect to WAN 154. FIG. 2 shows a router 158 that may connectLAN 152 to WAN 154 in a conventional manner.

It will be appreciated that the network connections shown are exemplaryand other ways of establishing a communications link between thecomputers can be used. The existence of any of various well-knownprotocols, such as TCP/IP, Frame Relay, Ethernet, FTP, HTTP and thelike, is presumed, and computer 100 can be operated in a client-serverconfiguration to permit a user to retrieve web pages from a web-basedserver. Furthermore, any of various conventional web browsers can beused to display and manipulate data on web pages.

The operation of computer 100 can be controlled by a variety ofdifferent program modules. Examples of program modules are routines,programs, objects, components, and data structures that performparticular tasks or implement particular abstract data types. Thepresent invention may also be practiced with other computer systemconfigurations, including hand-held devices, multiprocessor systems,microprocessor-based or programmable consumer electronics, network PCS,minicomputers, mainframe computers, personal digital assistants and thelike. Furthermore, the invention may also be practiced in distributedcomputing environments where tasks are performed by remote processingdevices that are linked through a communications network. In adistributed computing environment, program modules may be located inboth local and remote memory storage devices.

As will be discussed, system memory 112 may contain computer executableinstructions that are executed by central processor 110 to determine avalue of a forest factory using EQ. 1 or EQ. 2. Also, hard disk drive118 may contain various forest parameters that are associated with theforest factory when determining the value of the forest factory. A usermay input relevant information (e.g., an identification of the forestfactory) through keyboard 128 or pointing device 130 and may viewresults through display device 142.

FIG. 3 shows sources of economic value from forest factory 300 inaccordance with an embodiment of the invention. In order to understandthe real worth of forest factory 300 in the coming years, companiesshould consider developments in the fields of environmental policy andenergy, and the new value streams they promise to bring forest owners.Sources 301-313 (revenue streams) of forest factory 300 include sourcescorresponding to paper products and to lumber products. Moreover, with amore comprehensive view of forest factory 300, there are two additionalbasic sources of value that companies need to consider:

the emerging carbon-credit trading system (corresponding to source 315),which places value on the oxygen production and carbon-sink qualities ofthe forest; and the “forest refinery”—that is, the potential to use woodand recovered fiber as a source of biomass fuel (corresponding to source317). Research suggests that companies that proactively manage theseareas may add 10 to 30 percent of economic value to their forestholdings.

Biomass fuel may be generated from forest components that are typicallyconsidered as being wastes. (Biomass fuel may be derived from wood chipsfrom diseased trees, tree bark, sap, branches, leaves, and tree roots.Basically biomass offers the energy user a chance to convert abiological material, i.e., corn, wood chips, pig manure, used cookingoil, to a fuel which can be stored easily and then burned to produceenergy.) This approach is useful when you have waste biologicalmaterials and can use them to produce inexpensive fuel. Thus, eachbiomass production system is quite individual, depending oncircumstances and available resources. For example, the waste wood maybe converted to a burnable gas.

By fundamentally rethinking their concept of the forest factory 300,companies may be able to tap into these significant new sources ofvalue. That in turn can help them address shareholder pressures forimproved returns, and ultimately help them move forward on the road tobecoming a high-performance business—in particular, one that can deliversustainable results and consistently outperform their peers over time.

While no one can predict the future with absolute certainty, of course,current economic trends suggest that new value streams will increase.For example, the recently signed U.S. Energy Policy Act of 2005 andpotential global environmental agreements—such as a modified KyotoProtocol that may require companies to “pay” for carbon dioxideemissions—make carbon-credit trading increasingly viable. In addition,with relatively straightforward harvest-management and crop-rotationtechniques, the carbon-credit value stream may coexist with thetraditional “extraction” value stream, allowing companies to ensure thatapproximately 80 percent of their forest lands are available for carboncredits without limiting the availability of lumber and pulp (whichcorrespond to a stump land value). Moreover, the carbon credit value maybe adjusted for the crop rotation period. For example, as the croprotation period decreases, less of the forest is available for carboncredits.

FIG. 4 shows average monthly oil prices (1998-2005) exemplifying oilprices that embodiments of the invention can adjust to. The averagemonthly oil prices correspond to different oil markets that includeDubai oil average 401, Dated Brent oil average 403, and WTI oil average405. The biomass fuel value stream (corresponding to source 317) islikely to benefit from rising oil costs, making alternative energysources more attractive. Oil prices have been fluctuating well aboveUS$50 a barrel for more than a year and currently is approachingUS$70/barrel as shown in FIG. 4. Although these increases have long beenviewed as cyclical, there is now a growing consensus that oil pricingactually represents a structural change in the market and that high oilprices are long-term if not permanent.

FIG. 5 shows biomass fuel and total energy consumption (2002)(corresponding to pie chart 501), exemplifying biomass fuel prices thatembodiments of the invention can adjust to. While fossil fuels(corresponding to coal market share 503, natural gas market share 505,and petroleum market share 507) and nuclear power (corresponding tonuclear electric power market share 508) dominate the energy market,renewable energy market share 509 is gaining more importance. Renewableenergy is generated from a number of energy generation sources includingbiomass generation 513, hydroelectric generation 517, geothermalgeneration 515, wind generation 519, and solar generation 511. As shownin FIG. 5, biomass generation 513 and hydroelectric generation 517provide the majority share of the renewable energy market share 509. Themove toward biomass fuels is also getting a boost from various “green”energy incentives already in place in many developed economies.Political pressure is growing in many parts of the world to increase theuse of renewable energy sources and the governments of Sweden, Finlandand Germany have all sponsored major electricity-generation projectsbased on biomass fuels. Biofuels already account for nearly half theenergy produced from renewable sources in the United States (as shown inFIG. 5).

FIG. 6 shows a forest value stack 603 in accordance with an embodimentof the invention. Companies need to evaluate their holdings not just asa static resource, but rather as a dynamic “forest factory” thatactively produces value in three streams: traditional wood/pulpproducts, biomass fuels and carbon-credit trading. Companies need tofactor in both the existing traditional value and the potential valuethat the new value streams will bring, and weigh the two componentstogether. Research suggests that the ability to balance the needs oftoday and tomorrow (and simultaneously manage across near-term,medium-term, and long-term time horizons) is a fundamentalcharacteristic of high-performance businesses.

Industry experience suggests that these developments mean that companiesneed to develop a more multifaceted view of forest assets vis-a-vis atraditional forest value stack 601. Consequently, forest value stack 603includes traditional value component 605, biomass fuel value component607, and carbon credit value component 609. The traditional forestcomponent 605 is typically less than the traditional value fortraditional forest value stack 601; however, the difference is typicallyexceeded by the gains for the biomass fuel and carbon credits.

By taking this comprehensive view, companies are likely to find thateven though the traditionally calculated value of their holdings inmature markets is declining, the new value streams will more than makeup for that decline.

Cognizant of these forward-looking and more complete calculations,companies can then create the business case, investment strategies andpartnership programs needed to make the best use of their forest assets.If companies decide to retain their holdings, they can ensure that theyhave the mechanisms in place to extract the full value from the forestfactory. Above all, they can avoid losing an important source of valueand, ultimately, achieve high performance and greater profitability.

Embodiments of the invention quantify the value of forest factory inrelation to the different value components. For example, the value of aforest value may be analyzed in relation to the stumpage land value(corresponding to the lumber and pulp), carbon credit value, and thebiomass fuel value. The stumpage land value is based on harvestingtimber on a periodic basis. For example, timber is harvested every sevenyears, in which one seventh of the acreage is cut every year.Embodiments of the invention may determine a value of a forest factoryin which timber is harvested on a different period basis. Harvestingperiods are typically between seven to twelve years.

The forest factory may include both coniferous trees (softwood, e.g.,fir and pin) and deciduous trees (hardwood, e.g., birch and oak).Typically, different parameters for oxygen generation are associatedwith coniferous forests and with deciduous forest when determining thecarbon credit values. CFv designates the carbon credit value per acre,K_(a) designates a constant value of oxygen generation per 1000 acres ofconiferous forest and K_(b) designates a constant value of oxygengeneration per 1000 acres of deciduous forest.) A forest factory mayinclude a mixture of coniferous trees and deciduous trees, where C isthe percentage of the forest with coniferous trees and B is thepercentage with deciduous trees.

According to an embodiment of the invention, one can approximate thevalue of a forest factory (per acre) with overall percentage ofconiferous trees and deciduous trees, using the following relationship:

Annual TVFF=Stumpage Land Price/7+CFv+(K _(a) *C+K _(b) *B)/1000  (EQ.1)

In EQ. 1, the harvesting time (crop rotation time period) is sevenyears, which is typical of a forest factory. Consequently, the stumpageland price is averaged over seven years. However, the embodiment mayaccommodate a different harvest time. Computer system 100 (as shown inFIG. 2) may be programmed in order to perform the above calculations.

FIG. 7 shows a layout of a forest (land parcel 701) that contain landpartitions 703-709.

Land parcel 701 may have a heterogeneous mixture of trees thatcorrespond to different stumpage land values (S(i), where n equals thenumber of land partitions of the land parcel and i corresponds to thei^(th) land partition) and carbon credit values (CFv(i)). Each landpartition may have a different mix of coniferous trees and withdeciduous trees, corresponding to C(i) and B(i), respectively. Thefollowing relationship provides an approximate the value of a forestfactory (per acre):

$\begin{matrix}{{{Annual}\mspace{14mu} {TVFF}} = {{{Stumpage}\mspace{14mu} {Land}\mspace{14mu} {{Price}/7}} + {CFv} + {\frac{1}{n}{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}{\left( {{K_{a}*{C(i)}} + {K_{b}*{B(i)}}} \right)/1000}}}}} & \left( {{EQ}.\mspace{14mu} 2} \right)\end{matrix}$

While EQ. 1 and EQ. 2 only analyzes the value of a forest factory withrespect to coniferous trees and with deciduous trees, embodiments of theinvention may further refine the tree classification based on the treespecie (tree type), e.g., fir or pine rather than coniferous and oak orteak rather than deciduous. For example, the stumpage land value may berefined based on the tree specie.

In order to determine a total land value of the land parcel 701,embodiments of the invention may include a development land value withthe forest value (TVFF). The development land value may include thevalue associated with the intrinsic value of the land (e.g., developingthe forest factory into a golf course or condominiums after realizingthe TVFF).

FIG. 8 shows apparatus 800 that determines an annual total value of aforest factory (TVFF) in accordance with an embodiment of the invention.Apparatus 800 may be implemented using computer system 100 as previouslydiscussed. Apparatus 800 includes processor 801, valuation database 803,memory 805, and user interface 807. Processor 801 executescomputer-executable instructions that are contained in memory 805. Forexample, computer-executable instructions may be executed to determinethe annual TVFF from EQ. 2.

A user may identify the location of a forest factory to apparatus 800through user interface 807. The forest factory (e.g., land parcel 701)may include a plurality of land partitions (e.g., land partitions703-709). Processor 801 may access forest parameters (e.g., C(i), B(i),S(i), and CFv(i) for the i^(th) land partition from valuation database803). Processor 801 consequently determines the value of the forestvalue and provides the results to the user through user interface 807.

As can be appreciated by one skilled in the art, a computer system withan associated computer-readable medium containing instructions forcontrolling the computer system may be utilized to implement theexemplary embodiments that are disclosed herein. The computer system mayinclude at least one computer such as a microprocessor, a cluster ofmicroprocessors, a mainframe, and networked workstations.

While the invention has been described with respect to specific examplesincluding presently preferred modes of carrying out the invention, thoseskilled in the art will appreciate that there are numerous variationsand permutations of the above described systems and techniques that fallwithin the spirit and scope of the invention as set forth in theappended claims.

1. A method for determining a value of a land parcel, comprising: (a)determining a stump land value component of the land parcel; (b)determining a biomass fuel value component of the land parcel; and (c)combining the stump land value component and the biomass fuel valuecomponent to obtain a forest value of the land parcel.
 2. The method ofclaim 1, further comprising: (d) determining a carbon credit valuecomponent of the land parcel; and (e) adjusting the forest value withthe carbon credit value component.
 3. The method of claim 1, furthercomprising: (d) normalizing the stump land value component by a croprotation time period.
 4. The method of claim 1, further comprising:(a)(i) determining a corresponding stump land value portion for acorresponding land partition, the land parcel having a plurality of landpartitions; (a)(ii) determining another stump land value portion foranother land partition; and (a)(iii) combining the corresponding stumpland value portion and the other stump land value portion to obtain thestump land value component.
 5. The method of claim 1, furthercomprising: (b)(i) determining a corresponding biomass fuel valueportion for a corresponding land partition, the land parcel having aplurality of land partitions; (b)(ii) determining another biomass fuelvalue portion for another land partition; and (b)(iii) combining thecorresponding biomass fuel value portion and the other biomass fuelvalue portion to obtain the biomass fuel value component.
 6. The methodof claim 2, further comprising: (d)(i) determining a correspondingcarbon credit value portion for a corresponding land partition, the landparcel having a plurality of land partitions; (d)(ii) determininganother carbon credit value portion for another land partition; and(d)(iii) combining the corresponding carbon credit value portion and theother carbon credit value portion to obtain the carbon credit valuecomponent.
 7. The method of claim 1, further comprising: (d) determininga development land value of the land parcel; (e) combining thedevelopment land value with the forest value to obtain a total landvalue of the land parcel.
 8. The method of claim 2, the carbon creditvalue component being based on a constant value of oxygen generation. 9.The method of claim 8, the constant value of oxygen generation beingassociated with a tree type.
 10. The method of claim 9, furthercomprising: (d)(i) partitioning the carbon credit value component by thetree type for each tree type; and (d)(ii) combining a plurality ofcarbon credit value partitions to obtain the carbon credit valuecomponent.
 11. The method of claim 2, further comprising: (f) adjustingthe carbon credit value component based on the stump land valuecomponent.